Trillion-Dollar Forecasts from Boeing and Airbus

The no. 1 A330 for France’s first long-haul, low-cost carrier – French Blue – takes shape at Airbus’ Toulouse final assembly line. (Image courtesy of Airbus.)

Airbus and Boeing are at it again.

The companies have both released their annual 20-year forecasts and the numbers are staggering.

Boeing is projecting demand for 39,620 new airplanes valued at USD $5.9 trillion. Meanwhile, Airbus is projecting demand for 33,000 new airplanes valued at $5.2 trillion. Let’s break those numbers down to see what they really mean.

Boeing’s Current Market Outlook (CMO)

This year’s CMO from Boeing represents a 4.1-percent increase over last year’s forecast. This is due in large part to the growth in the single-aisle market.

Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016-2035.

Single-aisle airplanes, like Boeing’s MAX 8 and 737-800 make up more than two-thirds of Boeing’s orders at 28,140 aircraft—an increase of more than five percent compared to last year. In contrast, widebody airplanes make up less than one quarter of Boeing’s orders at 9,100.

Regional jets constitute the remaining 2,380.

“Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect to see passenger traffic grow 4.8 percent a year over the next two decades.”

Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2016-2035.

In addition, Boeing projects the Asia market, including China, will continue to lead in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades. Currently, the number of projected deliveries for Asia is nearly equal to North America and Europe combined.

Airbus’ Global Market Forecast

The French company took a slightly different perspective than its American rival, emphasizing the global trends that are driving growth in the aerospace market. According to Airbus, by 2035 the world’s aircraft fleet will have doubled from 19,500 aircraft today to nearly 40,000 with 13,000 being replaced with more fuel-efficient models.

Like Boeing, Airbus sees the most significant gains to come from APAC. The company predicts that the region’s propensity to travel will triple to 75 percent of its population. Within the next decade, Airbus expects China’s domestic air traffic to become the world’s largest.

The company also emphasized the growing need for pilots and engineers, with 560,000 new pilots and 540,000 new technicians needed over the next two decades to build, fly and maintain the growing global fleet.

Regarding airplane types, Airbus predicts an increase in demand for higher capacity aircraft, which is why the company is projecting a requirement for over 9,500 widebody aircraft, valued at approximately $2.8 trillion. Nevertheless, the single-aisle market remains the largest for Airbus, with 23,500 new aircraft worth $2.4 trillion.

Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook, Airbus Global Market Forecast.

It’s interesting to note that despite the fact that single-aisle aircraft make up the majority of new units, widebody aircraft still account for the largest total value, at least for Airbus. Still, the growth of the single-aisle market should not be underemphasized.

What do you think?

Will single-aisle continue to grow, or will widebody make a comeback over the next two decades?

Comment below.