This method can help to assess the future exploitable technical potential of wind and solar PV energy, as well as their capacity to replace exiting generation assets. In addition, it can forecast fossil fuel savings and facilitate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The research is published in journal Energy under the title “Wind and Solar PV Technical Potentials: Measurement Methodology and Assessments for Russia.”
According to the researchers, the study was designed to overcome the methodological limitations of previous country-level assessments (e.g., incomplete or unreliable sources, absence of hourly, daily and monthly assessments, etc.) based on the best available methods and data.
The paper presents a detailed methodology for calculating renewable energy potentials that may be applied in any country or region in the world.
Current assessment approaches usually feature three types of renewable energy potentials: gross (theoretical), technical, and economic. The paper’s authors introduce a number of additional potentials, including:
- Fuel potential (wind, solar PV)
- Energy potential in metric tons of reference fuel
- Heat energy potential (volume of heat energy in gigacalories and, consequently, heat energy savings gained through non-combustion of fossil fuels)
- Electrical energy potential (volume of electrical energy in kWh, and, consequently, the savings of electrical energy that would otherwise be produced with the use of traditional methods)
- Resource saving potential (savings of fossil fuels)
- Environmental potential (total air pollutants avoided)
The main calculation was performed using the NASA SSE database with a coordinate grid featuring 64,800 1ох1о cells.
In order to assess the efficiency of wind-turbines for various types of generating equipment, the researchers came up with a new method, which, in turn, was validated through a comparative analysis of data from a wind monitoring campaign carried out by a German engineering company in one of Russia for a period of 18 months using 70-meter masts.
This method allowed the researchers, based on data on wind speed frequencies at a height of 50 meters above ground level, to calculate the Weibull probability density function at any height over the ground, along with the performance of wind turbines of varying capacities and height.
For instance, the study proved that the highest potential for wind energy can be found in the territories of Russia’s Far East, territories beyond the Polar Circle, and the coastal areas in the North-East of the country, as well as the Kamchatka Peninsula and Sakhalin Island.
The best prospects for solar energy were found to be in Russia’s Southern regions and certain regions in Western and Eastern Siberia. Substantial levels of cumulative solar radiation have also been observed at the very northern territories of Russia–the Severnaya Zemlya and Novaya Zemlya archipelagos.
In addition, the researchers assert that using the technical potential of solar PV and wind energy will allow Russia to save approximately 40 billion metric tons of coal-equivalent of hydrocarbons every year, as well as prevent roughly 80 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in СО2-equivalent.
For more renewable energy news, learn about NASA patents that could impact renewable energy.