Droughts and wildfires are a growing concern throughout the world, and finding better ways to anticipate them could make a big difference. Fortunately, a team of researchers at Australian National University (ANU) Research School of Earth Sciences has found a way to gauge how much water is available beneath the Earth’s surface. This development paves the way to forecast droughts up to five months in advance.
"We've been able to use them to detect variations in water availability that affect the growth and condition of grazing land, dryland crops and forests, and that can lead to increased fire risk and farming problems several months down the track," said Siyuan Tian from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences.
The GRACE Follow-On satellites used by the team provided, for the first time ever, a measurement of alterations in total water storage anywhere on the planet. The satellites were developed by American, German and Australian scientists.
Combining the findings with a computer model simulating the water cycle and plant growth helped the team to put together an extensive picture of the water’s distribution beneath the surface and of the probable vegetation impacts in the months ahead.
The team’s decision to look down underground from outer space to predict droughts—rather than looking up at the sky to predict the weather—has provided new opportunities to prepare for a drought. This will, in turn, allow for more time to manage the impact stemming from issues like bushfires and livestock casualties.
The researchers plan to combine these drought forecasts with up-to-date satellite maps of vegetation flammability as provided by the Australian Flammability Monitoring System at ANU to forecast how the uncontrollable bushfires risks will change in the months ahead.
For more on dealing with droughts, check out Engineering for Good: How Engineering Students Helped Irrigate a Town.