The three-year project called Pathways to Sustainable Aviation was announced at the Farnborough International Airshow in July 2022.
“Addressing how the aerospace industry reduces its environmental footprint is critical to the future of air travel,” said John Hansman, director of the International Center for Air Transportation at MIT, in a news release. “For this new project, we are excited to work with Boeing to quantify the systems-level impacts of potential approaches in order to reduce the carbon emissions from aviation.”
Findings from this research will be integrated into Boeing’s “Cascade” model, which visualizes carbon emission reductions in real time based on four levers: fleet renewal, operational efficiencies, renewable energy sources and advanced technologies.
Cascade is a data-modeling tool Boeing created with input from leading universities. The tool assesses the full lifecycle impacts of renewable energy by accounting for the emissions required to produce, distribute and use alternative energy carriers such as hydrogen, electricity, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
According to Chris Raymond, Boeing’s chief sustainability officer, the aircraft manufacturer plans to use the Cascade tool with airline operators, industry partners and policymakers to inform them when, where and how different fuel sources intersect with new airplane designs.
"We created Cascade on a foundation of credible data and analytical models to allow users to explore various pathways to net-zero,” said Raymond in a news release “We think this model will help our industry visualize, for the first time, the real climate impact of each solution, from beginning to end, and to inform the most probable and effective strategies."
Net Zero in Aviation
The concept of net-zero emissions has become a major initiative in the civil aviation sector. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021 approved a resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, in alignment with the Paris Agreement goal for global warming not to exceed 1.5°C.
“The post-COVID-19 re-connect will be on a clear path towards net zero. With the collective efforts of the entire value chain and supportive government policies, aviation will achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, in a press release announcing the initiative.
It’s no small task. IATA estimates that a cumulative total of 21.2 gigatons of carbon must be abated between now and 2050 to achieve the goal. But reductions will be hard to come by. Currently, jet fuel remains the most efficient way to power a plane, but it generates significant emissions. A 2021 study by research and advisory firm Deloitte estimates that one return trip from London to New York generates one ton of carbon dioxide per passenger, which matches the annual carbon footprint of an average citizen in a developing country.
In that study, Deloitte reports that commercial aviation accounts for almost three percent of global carbon-dioxide emissions and that by 2050 the commercial aviation industry could expect 10 billion passengers to fly about 12.5 trillion miles (20 trillion kilometers), generating 2,350 million tons of carbon dioxide, which is 2.6 times the emissions generated in 2019.
Collaborating for Decarbonization
“Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time for our industry and world,” said Brian Yutko, Boeing’s vice-president and chief engineer of sustainability and future mobility at the Farnborough announcement. "Our common goal is to enable the societal benefits of air transportation while reaching zero climate impact on our planet. To make that a reality, we believe it is best to learn and share our findings broadly, based on a foundation of data, scientific research, and collaboration, as we work together to decarbonize aviation."