The Kakhovka Dam
The Kakhovka dam was built in 1956 and is one of six dams on the Dnipro River, all built during the Stalin regime. The dams provide hydroelectric power, reservoirs, and water for irrigation. The top of the dams have roadways but the road on the Kakhovka dam had suffered damage from the war.
The reservoir covers an area of 2,155 km2 (832 sq mi) at an average depth of 8.4 m (28 ft), a volume of 18.2 km3 (4.4 cu mi).
What Happened?
The Kakhovka dam, in the Kherson district and in a region occupied by invading Russian forces, suffered a breach in the middle of the dam on Jun 6, 2023. An “internal explosion” was reported at 2:50 am local time, according to a tweet by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky
Who Did It?
Both Ukraine and Russia were quick to blame each other for the dam’s collapse, though all Western leaders were in unison in suspecting Russian involvement. Military experts also agree that at this stage of the war, with Ukraine mounting a counteroffensive, Russia has the most to gain from flooding that would create a barrier for Ukrainian forces to cross.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has the most to lose, with all of the loss of life and property on its soil.
Though the opposite of scorched Earth, flooding has the same dire result favored by Russia as it retreats from areas in Ukraine. Towns recaptured in the Northern and Western fronts from Russia have revealed complete devastation, mass graves, shootings of prisoners and other violations of the Geneva Convention--which explicitly bans attacks on "installations containing dangerous forces," such as dams due to the risk to civilians.
While a “natural” failure cannot be 100 percent ruled out this early after the collapse, experts poring over the photos and videos, agree that under the circumstances, the dam failure is “suspicious.” Dams don’t usually break up so much in the middle. Dam failures usually start at the sides, where the concrete interfaces with the Earth, said Gregory B. Baecher, a professor of engineering at the University of Maryland and member of the National Academy of Engineering to the New York Times.
Even though evidence of sabotage has not been provided, experts agree that the best way to bring down a dam is to blow it up from the inside. An internal explosion is the most structurally damaging becaue the blast is contained. By contrast, an external explosion, such as from attaching explosive charges or missile strikes, tends to dissipate much of its energy outside the structure.
The damage that could be done easily by an occupying force with hundreds of pounds of high explosive inside the dam would have taken tons of missiles from an attacking force outside the dam–as well as made for plenty of witnesses and left far more incriminating evidence.
The dam and hydroelectric plant were under Russian control, so Russia would have the best access to the interior of the dam to plant explosives.
More to Come
The Kakhovka dam collapse may be the first in a series. A Ukrainian official told the BBC that the Russians are planning to blow up more dams on the Dnipro River.
We should have seen it coming, some might say. Waters behind the dam had risen to a 30 year high and were up to the top of the dam because the gates were kept closed. Russia, which controlled the dam and the hydroelectric plant connected to it, may have sought to release the water when the reservoir level had reached the highest possible level so that it cause the most damage after the breach.
A Little History
Bridge and dam sabotage to slow down or stop an enemy is practiced by both sides, and sometimes on the same bridges and dams. Ukraine launched a rocket attack on the Kakhovka dam in 2022 to test whether it could knock down the dam to stop a Russian crossing.
This is the biggest single day devastation since the beginning of the war. The area down river will cause more deaths and uproot over 40,000 people. Ukraine is already suffering from the largest population displacement in Europe since World War II.
Antonivka, about 40 miles downriver from the Kakhovka dam, currently has 4,000 residents compared to a prewar population of about 13,000, for example. About 16,000 people still live in a “critical zone” on the Ukrainian-controlled western bank and there’s another 25,000 people are on the Russian side, according to officials quoted by the New York Times.
The Dnipro River, which is dammed by the Kakhovka dam, currently separates Russian forces from the rest of Ukraine and had already been depopulated. The flooding will ruin crops over a large area. Ukraine, the “breadbasket” of Europe with it rich, dark soil, is a major world producer of wheat. Grain prices have already soared on international commodities exchanges.
What About the Nuclear Plant?
Hydroelectric power was less than 5 percent of Ukraine’s total power production, according to a February 2020 Climate Scorecard report. Most of Ukraine’s power (54%) comes from nuclear power plants.
One of the nuclear plants is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which caused some alarm after being overrun and controlled by Russia. However, it is far upstream from the dam and is not at immediate risk from the breach, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.