NASA is firmly convinced that 2012 DA14 won’t be hitting Earth today. They give it a 1 in 27,778,800 chance of hitting Earth when it next returns somewhere between 2080 and 2106, so we shouldn’t be needing any heroic sacrifices from Bruce Willis to blow it up any time soon.
But while 2012 DA14 might not be a threat to life on Earth, NASA has concluded that there at least 1360 potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA) that might collide with Earth in the near future. In 2005, Congress mandated NASA to detect, track and catalog any PHAs larger than 140 meters in diameter, but knowing the exact shape and size of the rock that’s going to wipe out your species isn’t much comfort unless you can stop it, so, what are our options for avoiding the fate of the dinosaurs?
Use the Nukes: Fortunately, we shouldn’t need to sacrifice any real-life oil drillers for this. This plan would involve detonating a nuclear warhead above the asteroid’s surface, vaporizing some of its mass and, hopefully, shoving it off course.
Smash it with Mass: Another option is to beat the asteroid at its own game by knocking it off course with a massive projectile. Currently, the European Space Agency is working on the Don Quijote project, aimed at doing just that.
Gravitational Tractors: A more subtle alternative to the smash and blast approach would be to pull the asteroid off-course with a gravitational tractor. This plan would involve flying a craft to the asteroid, where it would then use its gravitational pull to slowly and subtly change the asteroid’s course.
Solar Push: Noted geophysicist Dr Jay Melosh proposes a more awesome alternative – focusing the light of the sun to create a solar laser that could vaporize part of the asteroid’s mass and push it off-course with photonic radiation.
Give it an Engine: You’ll notice that most of these plans rely on deflecting the asteroid, not destroying it – and if you want to change something’s course, there’s always the direct approach. This plan would have a craft intercept the asteroid, mount a rocket on it, and try to steer it off-course directly. Unfortunately, we still haven’t exactly figured out how to build a rocket capable of pushing anything but the tiniest asteroid, so this plan’s potential is pretty limited.
Although there are several other proposed plans, such as an ordinary, non-solar laser beam, experts agree that the five above are the most realistic – and that should tell you just how unprepared we really are.
Watch a JPL Video about 2012 DA14 Below:
Images and Video Courtesy of Wikipedia and JPL