“We think recent market optimism about the 'Third Industrial Revolution' potential of 3D printing is overdone, given uncertain growth potential in the consumer market, limited pragmatic applications, and a lack of mass-production ability," says Nomura's James Kim.
What’s more, Kim isn’t convinced that 3D printing has the ability to capture a sizeable share of the manufacturing market. “We do not expect 3D printing to garner a meaningful share of the global manufacturing industry in the near term, with the total market size of 3D printing, as per Wohlers Associates, estimated to grow to $6B by 2017 (from $2B last year), largely falling short of the conventional manufacturing space ($93B)."
Although Kim is right that 3D printing isn’t now and may never become a competitor of traditional manufacturing, the technology is making a splash; particularly in short-run production and its name-sake industry of rapid prototyping.
To that end, Kim hedges by stating that Stratasys, 3D Systems, raw material makers and CAD software firms will likely be the chief beneficiaries of the 3D printing boom. Although to that list I’d add artists, startup-businesses, colleges, the medical industry and a host of other sectors invested in this transformative technology.
From my vantage it’s hard to see 3D printing challenging traditional manufacturing, and that is a problem for large investors like Nomura. While their position is understandable, though, I believe the real value of 3D printing isn’t its ability to shift the manufacturing field, but to empower enterprising individuals looking to create breakout products.
Image Courtesy of Nomura